Sunday, 12 August 2007

Sensational Poll Results for SNP

Sensational Poll Results for SNP

snp - 2007-08-10
SNP Business Manager Angus Robertson MP has commented on the sensational poll in the Daily Mail by Progressive Scottish Opinion which puts the SNP at 48% to 32% for Labour and also shows 40% of the public are satisfied with the new SNP Government with only 12% unfavourable.

Commenting Mr Roberstson said:

"These are sensational figures, showing SNP support up 15 points since the election - and clearly there is no 'Brown bounce' in Scotland. The poll underlines the success of the SNP government in delivering our programme for the first 100 days at a pace that has left the opposition parties gasping, and unable to keep up.

"This is the highest opinion poll rating we have ever recorded.

"The SNP has build credibility and competence in government, and that is reflected in the satisfaction figures running at over three-to-one in favour. No previous Scottish government has build up such a solid platform of support in its first 100 days.

"Support for independence depends on how you ask the question - with as many polls in favour as against - and the important thing now is that we will lead a national conversation on Scotland's constitutional future which will galvanise further support."

ENDS

Notes for Editors:

The results from Progressive Scottish Opinion are:

If a Holyrood election was held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

SNP 48%
Labour 32%
Tories 8%
Lib Dems 8%
Greens 2%
SSP 2%

How satisfied are you with the SNP's performance to date?


Very satisfied 10%
Quite satisfied 30%
Neither 25%
Quite dissatisfied 7%
Very dissatisfied 5%
Unsure/don't know 23%

http://www.snp.org/press-releases/2006/sensational-poll-results-for-snp

A 16 point lead for the SNP?

A 16 point lead for the SNP?

Posted by Anthony Wells in Scotland, Voting Intention, YouGov

A new poll for the Scottish Daily Mail by Scottish Opinion suggests a surge in support for the SNP. General voting intention figures for Holyrood (the poll asked only how people would vote in a Holyrood election, not how they would vote in the constituency and regional sections. Were CON 8%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, SNP 48%.

UKPolling Report is still unsure exactly how much weight to give Scottish Opinion polls - we don’t have details of their methodology and during the campaign for the Scottish Parliament they managed to produce some wildly volatile figures, presenting polls showing a 3 point Labour lead and 12 point SNP lead within weeks of each other. The 48% figure for the SNP seems very high indeed. There is, however, other polling evidence to suggest the SNP are enjoying a more modest lead in the polls. A previous YouGov poll carried out for the SNP around the same time as Brown became Labour leader also suggested a boost in SNP support - it found CON 14%, LAB 31%, LDEM 12%, SNP 38% in the constituency vote and CON 14%, LAB 28%, LDEM 10%, SNP 33%, Green 7%, SSP 5% in the regional list vote.

The giant SNP lead is not, however, reflected in support for an independent Scotland. The Scottish Opinion poll also found 31% of respondents approved of independence, but 49% disapproved.

http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1014

Sunday 12 August 2007

Spin is the last refuge for the MoD (and Labour)

Spin is the last refuge for the MoD (and Labour)


I looked out of my kitchen window last Saturday to see an astonishing sight: a silver sword flashing above my hedge in the sunshine. The crunch of army boots told me it was a soldier and the church bells' pealing told me it was a wedding. I'm as nosy as any of my neighbours when it comes to village rites of passage, so I rushed down to stand with the other rubberneckers in the churchyard. My neighbour the headhunter's wife was away, but I found lots of fellow-gawpers from the village hall fundraising committee.

The bride was marrying a soldier from a barracks near to hereabouts, and the groom had asked six comrades-in-arms to form an honour guard. Soldiers in uniform are a rare sight on an ordinary Saturday in my village. In fact, uniformed military personnel are a rare sight anywhere outside garrison towns - they are deemed to "cause offence" to people who take offence easily. Men in uniform are routinely (and politely) asked to leave one renowned London department store, for example. They are also asked to remove their uniforms inside the military ward of Selly Oak NHS hospital when they return from Op Telic or Op Herrick with bits missing.

Anyway, they looked splendid last Saturday. The groom was in his best blues; the honour guard in khaki. "He's in his No 1s for his big day, but we're in our greens so we don't outshine him," said a young corporal. They were all wearing campaign medals: I guessed the dusty yellow ribbon was Iraq, but he had to tell me the others were Kosovo (Kosovo? He didn't look old enough) and Afghanistan. Only one soldier wasn't wearing a medal: had he not been on a tour? He said yes, Iraq. Twice! But the MoD had a backlog on medals; they were taking ages. "Bloody MoD," said another. "One of our blokes has been waiting two years for his medal and he was on Telic 1." (Which was 2003.)

Still, medalled or not, they were impeccably turned out, beaming and boiling hot.

Not as hot as it is in Basra right now (50C), where the rump of our troops are hunkered down in their shrinking bases, dodging rocket fire and bracing themselves for doing top cover on the supply runs to Basra Palace from the airport. "Doing top cover", as I understand it, means you open the top hatch of your inadequate Warrior and provide cover by sticking out your head and gun-arm. Not something I'd welcome any son of mine doing. Nor scooting around Basra in an inadequate Snatch Land Rover.

The young corporals were lucky it was last Saturday they were talking to me. Had the wedding been today, they would have been in breach of new guidelines from the Ministry of Defence, which ban soldiers, sailors and airforce personnel from blogging, taking part in surveys, speaking in public, posting on bulletin boards (which must include posting comments on the Telegraph online), playing in multi-player online computer games, or sending text messages or pictures to phones without the permission of a superior.

The guidelines state that "all such material must help to maintain and, where possible, enhance the reputation of defence", and they apply whether the Serviceman is "on-duty, off-duty or in spare time". "Bloody MoD can't get our medals out," spoken by a serving corporal wearing No 2s and his Telic medal does not "enhance the reputation of defence" when "defence" means the MoD. Bad boy! The thousand press officers will all be very, very cross. But since I specially didn't mention your cap-badge, you should be OK.

The MoD press office, now calling themselves "Team Defence", would like to keep the public perception of "Defence Identity and Brand Management" tightly in their own hands. The recently released strategy document from their new head of press (now called "Director General Media Communications") is a horrible bit of PowerPoint guff which aims to teach MoD spinners how to spin better (which gives the lie to Gordon Brown's airy promise to dump the "culture of spin").

I'm not alone in thinking the MoD is an egregiously clodhopping government department. Headed as it is by the worst Defence Secretary of this Government, the unappealing Scots lawyer from Kilwinning (any Scot knows the jokes about Kilwinning: ask your nearest Glaswegian), it doesn't seem to know how to manage defence in any of its aspects, on the field or off.

You get the constant impression that the Rt Hon Des Browne is embarrassed about the two "hot" wars he's running. You can't fail to get the impression that he doesn't much like the military. It was Browne who was in charge of the barking mess that was made of that recent operetta, My Captive Story, when young Mr Bean was allowed to weep in the papers over his iPod, snatched by the Iranians.

Browne said the mess wasn't his fault: no. More like the Navy's fault. (The new MoD guidelines will prevent personnel selling stories in future, but the Navy's embarrassment will take a generation to live down.)

The Army Rumour Service (one of my favourite websites) has been chuntering, in a bemused way, over the new ban on: a) speaking to a member of the public at a wedding, and b) posting rudely about MoD daftness.

This was the website that campaigned (victoriously) to have Hon. Lt Tulbahadur Pun VC brought to Britain for medical treatment, and for a SSAFA home-from-home for Service families to be allowed near Headley Court in Ashtead, Surrey. (Both of which battles Des Browne climbed aboard, after they were won.) It's a tightly moderated, but unofficial, website - knockabout, noisy and rude. But utterly loyal to the Armed Forces. Will Team Defence consider that it "enhances" the "brand", I wonder? They'd better.

Last Updated: 12:01am BST 11/08/2007

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/08/11/do1102.xml

Respect holds off Labour byelection challenge

Respect holds off Labour byelection challenge

The Respect coalition has narrowly defended a seat against a strong Labour challenge at a byelection in Tower Hamlets.

The group, founded by George Galloway, who is MP for the neighbouring Bethnal Green and Bow constituency, held on to its seat in the east London borough with its candidate Harun Miah defeating Labour's Michael Keith by a reduced majority of just 97 votes.

The election, which Respect pitched as a "vital test of Brown's leadership", saw a swing of 6.7% to Labour.

The ballot was called following the resignation of Respect's Shamim Ahmed Chowdhury.

In this week's only other reported contest, the Tories defended a Walton Ambleside seat at Surrey's Elmbridge borough, with a reduced margin of 58 votes over the Walton Society.

RESULTS: Elmbridge Borough - Walton Ambleside: Con 310, Walton Society 252, Lab 60, Ukip 33, Lib Dem 26. (May 2007 - Con 431, Walton Society 281, Lib Dem 94, Lab 90). Con hold. Swing 0.7% Con to Lab.

Tower Hamlets Borough - Shadwell: Respect 1512, Lab 1415, Con 476, Lib Dem 98. (May 2006 - Three seats Respect 1851, 1789, 1707, Lab 1287, 1141, 1054, C 723, 670, 605, Lib Dem 226). Respect hold. Swing 6.7% Respect to Lab.

Friday August 10, 2007

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/byelections/story/0,,2146130,00.html

New Labour election chief fans talk of snap poll

New Labour election chief fans talk of snap poll

Speculation that Gordon Brown might call an early general election increased yesterday after Labour hired a former lobbyist and adviser to Tony Blair to build up a war chest to fight the next election.

Labour MPs are on alert for a snap election possibly as early as October to capitalise on the party's lead in the polls, though next May or June are still more likely if Labour retains its poll advantage.

The party announced that Jon Mendelsohn, a businessman who co-founded the public affairs company LLM Communications 10 years ago, will take over a newly-created role as Director of General Election Resources from Sept 3.

Mr Mendelsohn's job was "to help the party to build the organisational capacity in the run-up to the next general election". His voluntary role would be to "improve overall organisational efficiency and to develop the party's future financial strategies''.

A spokesman said: "He will work hand-in-hand with party staff on strengthening and extending our supporter base, seeking value for money in our expenditure and helping to build a party machinery that can best fight a general election, whenever the Prime Minister chooses to call it."

Mr Mendelsohn will sever all links to clients before taking up the role to avoid any conflicts of interest, although he will retain some investments. He said he hoped to play a part in seeing Labour re-elected.

He said: "As a lifelong Labour supporter and a passionate believer in social justice and equality I am delighted to take up this post.

"I hope that I can play my part in seeing the Labour government re-elected once again so Gordon Brown can continue to change Britain for the better."

Mr Mendelsohn is a former head of the Union of Jewish Students and advised Mr Blair on business relations and campaign strategy from November 1995 to May 1997.

He rose to prominence when he set up LLM, the lobbying firm that in 1998 was caught up in the cash for access row when executives were allegedly caught boasting about links to the Labour hierarchy. More recently, Mr Mendelsohn donated £5,000 to Mr Brown's campaign to be party leader.

Speculation over an early election has been mounting following a series of opinion polls showing Labour maintaining a lead of six or seven points over the Tories since Mr Brown moved to No 10 - enough to secure a healthy majority of 100 or more if repeated at the ballot box.

The Conservatives said Mr Brown "should have called an election immediately on becoming Prime Minister". A spokesman said: "The next general election can't come soon enough as far as we are concerned. Britain needs a new government and new ideas."

A leaked memo last week from Lord Gould, the Labour strategist, advised Mr Brown to go for "an early election after a short period of intense and compelling activity''.

The Prime Minister has also asked Ed Miliband, the Cabinet Office minister, to prepare an election manifesto.

However, No 10 has played down the prospect of an October election.

Last Updated: 1:47am BST 09/08/2007

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/09/nelection109.xml

Labour appoints general election director

Labour appoints general election director


Labour appointed a new director of general election resources today in a move that will heighten speculation that Gordon Brown will call a snap vote.

Jon Mendelsohn, a former adviser to Tony Blair and lobbyist, is charged with bolstering the party's finances, membership and organisation ahead of an election. The new position starts next month.

Westminster has been abuzz with speculation that the prime minister will go to the country as early as the autumn to capitalise on the "Brown bounce" that has seen him surge ahead of David Cameron in the opinion polls.

Labour appointed a new director of general election resources today in a move that will heighten speculation that Gordon Brown will call a snap vote.

Jon Mendelsohn, a former adviser to Tony Blair and lobbyist, is charged with bolstering the party's finances, membership and organisation ahead of an election. The new position starts next month.

Westminster has been abuzz with speculation that the prime minister will go to the country as early as the autumn to capitalise on the "Brown bounce" that has seen him surge ahead of David Cameron in the opinion polls.


Wednesday Aug 8th

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2144285,00.html