Monday, 27 August 2007
Poll reveals Labour's lead is narrowing
LABOUR'S lead over the Tories has narrowed slightly, according to a new opinion poll out today.
The ICM survey for The Guardian put Labour on 39 per cent, one point up on last month and five points ahead of the Tories, who were up two points on 35 per cent.
The Liberal Democrats were down two points on 18 per cent as their support was squeezed by the two larger parties.
Translated into seats, the findings would give Labour a majority of around 50 seats at Westminster.
But the narrowing gap prompted speculation that Prime Minister Gordon Brown might hesitate about opting for an early general election.
However, the poll also found fewer people wanting a change of government compared with this time last year.
Although 55 per cent said they agreed it was "time for a change" that figure was well down on the 70 per cent who took that view last year.
ICM interviewed 1016 adults aged 18 and over by telephone between August 22 and 23.
Brown unlikely to call early election as Cameron narrows gap in the polls
End of his honeymoon period: It's unlikely Brown will call an election as his lead in the polls has slipped
Gordon Brown was warned his "bounce" was faltering as it was revealed the Tories were most trusted on the economy, health, and law and order.
A new poll showed voters believed David Cameron was most likely to solve problems in the creaking NHS, crack crime and anti-social behaviour and safeguard the nation's finances.
At the same time, the Prime Minister's lead in the polls slipped to five points - down from as much as ten points a fortnight ago.
Support for Labour was up one point to 39 per cent - but the Tories were up two to 34 per cent, according to an ICM survey. The Lib Dems were down two to 18 per cent.
Supporters of the Tory leader hailed the findings as a "huge boost" - and suggested Mr Brown's honeymoon period was coming to a halt.
Since entering Number 10 in June, he had enjoyed a "Brown bounce" with voters impressed by his assured handling of the foiled terror plot in London and Glasgow, the floods and the foot and mouth crisis.
But the latest results indicate this is diminishing as the Conservatives begin to claw back ground on their main rivals.
Mr Cameron has spent the past fortnight campaigning furiously on health and law and order, issues which seem to have hit the target with voters.
Last week, which saw the tragic shooting of 11-year-old Rhys Jones in Liverpool, he pledged to make tackling social breakdown and cracking down on yobbish behaviour the central plank of his General Election battle.
David Cameron: out of deep water?
And today Mr Cameron makes his third speech on law and order in eight days when he addresses the "crime crisis" engulfing Britain.
His underlying message on the NHS also appears to have struck a chord, despite becoming embroiled in an embarrassing row with health chiefs over claims 29 hospitals faced cuts to A&E or maternity units.
Voters also seem to have been wooed by Mr Cameron's pledge to reduce "family taxes", which followed the publication of former Cabinet minister John Redwood's detailed report on economic competitiveness.
Measures could include lucrative tax breaks for married couples worth £3,000 a year, scrapping inheritance tax and slashing stamp duty. These would be paid for by hitting car and air travel through "green" levies.
Questioned about which party was most likely to sweep crime off the streets, voters gave the Tories a ten-point lead.
They also think Labour is much more likely to damage the NHS - being seen as the biggest threat by nine points.
And despite his hard-earned reputation as one of Britain's finest Chancellors, Mr Brown is considered six points more likely to upset the economy.
However, voters think Labour is more likely to deliver rising house prices, better educational standards, tackle climate change and share income more fairly.
Nevertheless, the figures are good news for Mr Cameron, who has taken a battering over his party's third place in recent by-elections, for ditching his party's traditional policies on grammar schools and for deserting his flood-hit constituency for a trip to Rwanda.
They also mean the Prime Minister is even less likely to risk a snap General Election in October.
Labour insiders claim the slide in the polls, combined with a possible low turnout due to bad weather, a backlash in Scotland and a lack of activists, lengthen the odds on Mr Brown asking Britain to go to the ballot box in autumn.
Instead, he could wait until spring or possibly even later. He is not required to call an election until May 2010.
If the figures in poll were repeated at an election, both Labour and the Conservatives would gain seats.
But Labour would retain a workable 50-seat majority.
However, if Labour shed two points to the Tories during an election campaign, Mr Brown would see his majority slashed to about ten seats - making him vulnerable to rebellions from left-wing backbenchers.
Tory MP Desmond Swayne, who is Mr Cameron's key Parliamentary aide, said: "This poll will be very, very worrying for Gordon Brown if it shows we are leading on the NHS.
"The NHS is Labour's equivalent of our economy in the 1980s. This is the equivalent of what happened to us after Black Wednesday.
"When voters' trust in our handling of the economy went out of the window, what was the point of voting for us. If our tanks are on their lawn for the first time ever, why vote Labour?"
The poll shows the Prime Minister has made significant strides to eliminate some of the disquiet about Labour in the dying days of Tony Blair's regime, the poll suggests.
Even though 55 per cent of voters still want a change of government, this is down from 70 per cent last September.
And 31 per cent of voters believe it is wise to "stick with Labour" compared to 23 per cent a year ago.
The poll also suggested the political north-south divide had increased since the 2005 election.
Tory supporting has hardened by nine points in England's southern shires and one point in the Midlands, where the party will fight key marginal seats.
Labour, on the other hand, has galvanised its vote in its traditional industrial heartlands in the north. It has also gained momentum in London.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell, who overcame a recent crisis by posting two good by-election results in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield, will be concerned by the findings.
Support for his party has dropped by nine points to 19 per cent in the south, set to be the scene of a battle-royal with the Tories over a string of knife-edge seats.
They include Eastleigh in Hampshire, which Lib Dem environment spokesman and possible future leader Chris Huhne holds by just 568 votes.
ICM interviewed 1,016 adults aged 18 and over by telephone between August 22 and 23.
Key findings of ICM poll
•Labour lead slips to five points. Last month, ICM gave Labour a six-point lead and two weeks ago YouGov put it at ten points.
•Labour at 39 per cent (+1), Tories at 34 per cent (+2), Liberal Democrats at 18 per cent (-2), Others at 9 per cent (-1).
•If figures repeated in a General Election, Labour would hold a majority of about 50 seats.
•55 per cent of voters believe it is "time for a change" of government - down from 70 per cent a year ago.
•Labour lead on education - three points.
•Tory lead on law and order - ten points.
•Tory lead on health - nine points.
•Tory lead on economy - six points.
•Political north-south divide returning: Labour support in north up from 45 to 47 per cent and in north-east from 32 to 39 per cent.
•Conservative backing in south up from 39 to 48 per cent.
PLUM POSTING? JACK'S JOBS IS ROTTEN FRUIT
THE benighted African state of Malawi you would have thought already had enough on its plate.
Certainly the appointment of spring-heeled Jack McConnell as our man in Blantyre won't butter many parsnips in a country swept by hunger, AIDS, unemployment, mass poverty and ill health.
It is an insult to the poor Africans, as much as it is to our diplomatic service, the way an expensively superannuated failed apparatchik has been dropped on them without ascintilla of ambassadorial bearing training or skill.
My only consolation - call it Schadenfreude - is that Jacko will be bored out of his tiny mind wishing he was back in our own Blantyre or even Cumbernauld - anywhere but Malawi. I was the last British politician to see the late tyrant.
Dr Hastings Banda that is, not McConnell. He was the former elder of the Church of Scotland (until the church very belatedly threw him out) who ruled Malawi by the rod.
He was much favoured by the West for what he was not - a Communist - at a time when the colonies like Mozambique, Angola, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Zambia were booting out the Empire and spouting red flags or, in the case of Kenneth Kaunda, red 'kerchiefs.
They didn't care about the dirty little secrets Banda was keeping under his ubiquitous black Homburg hat. That he was a thief, a torturer and a murderer.
By the time I met him he was absolutely gaga. "How is the Prime Minister, Mr Wilson?" he asked me despite the fact Harold had left office nearly 20 years before.
Ididn't have the heart to tell the old boy Mr Wilson was in fact, er, dead. By that time Banda, and Malawi, were being run from behind the lace curtains by the brother of Banda's "official hostess", in fact his wee burd on the side. It could have been an Ealing comedy if it hadn't been so tragic.
Like Helen Liddell and Paul Boateng, McConnell is being given a diplomatic posting to ease him off the premises.
The difference is Australia and South Africa are plum postings, Malawi rotten fruit indeed.
It is a small dark corner where a very small man in a too-short black kilt with the wrong shirt and wrong socks has been made to go and stand to eat up his curds and whey.
'He'll be bored out his mind wishing he was back in our Blantyre or Cumbernauld'
g.galloway@dailyrecord.co.uk
Will forces funding be an issue at the next election?
While Iraq was an issue at the last election it was more to do with the integrity of the government and our relationship with America, rather than on spending, commitments and the duty to service people.Poll warning to Brown over October election gamble
· Cameron leading on law and order and health issues
· ICM poll shows Lib Dems falling behind in south
Julian Glover
Monday August 27, 2007
The Guardian
Gordon Brown would risk the possible loss of his parliamentary majority if he gambled and held an early general election this autumn, according to a Guardian/ICM poll published today. It shows Labour's lead narrowing slightly to five points amid signs of rising Conservative support.
The poll, carried out before the start of the bank holiday weekend, confirms that Labour is in a stronger position than it was before Mr Brown took over as leader. Support for the party stands at 39%, up one point on last month's Guardian/ICM survey. But Conservative support has increased by two points to 34%. Both major parties are squeezing the Liberal Democrats, down two points to 18%, a trend seen in other recent polls.
If those figures were repeated at a general election, both Labour and the Conservatives would stand to gain seats, with Labour retaining a majority of about 50 and winning some 370 seats.But Labour's lead is not enough to guarantee such success, which may encourage Mr Brown to wait until he calls a contest, not required by law until 2010.
If Labour support dropped by two points in the course of an election campaign, and Conservative support rose, Mr Brown would be returned to Downing Street with a majority of little over 10 seats. That would leave him vulnerable to rebellions by leftwing Labour MPs.
Nonetheless the poll shows that Mr Brown has gone a long way to turn around Labour's position since he arrived in office. Although 55% of voters agree with the statement that it is "time for a change", that figure has dropped dramatically since last September. Then, 70% of voters wanted a change of government.
Now 31% of voters agree that "continuity is important, stick with Labour", up from 23% in 2006. That suggests Mr Brown has managed to convince voters he has changed the nature of the government, while retaining some of the strengths that brought Labour to power a decade ago.
These are clear from the public's attitude towards the two main parties on a series of policy questions. Voters think that Labour, more than the Conservatives party, is likely to deliver rising house prices, higher educational standards, a fairer distribution of income and an effective approach to climate change.
The question compares public opinion now with 1996, when a Guardian/ICM poll tested views a year before Mr Blair won a landslide general election. It shows that voters have lost much of their enthusiasm for a Labour government, and on some issues, especially health, they have turned strongly against it.
But Mr Cameron, perhaps only a year from an election as Mr Blair was in 1996, has not been able to build the levels of support on key policies that helped New Labour win power.
In 1996, Labour led the Conservatives by 30 points as the party best placed to improve educational standards. Now it leads by three. On law and order, a key plank in Mr Blair's initial appeal, Labour's 1996 lead of 16% has turned into a 10 point deficit now. That suggests that Mr Cameron's campaigning on the issue over the last week, which also saw the shooting of 11-year-old Rhys Jones in Liverpool, is having an impact.
He is also making progress on health. In 1996, the Conservatives led Labour by 48 points as the party most likely to worsen the state of the NHS. Now, voters think that Labour, not the Tories, are most likely to harm health care. Labour leads the Conservatives by nine points as the biggest threat. Labour has also slipped back on the economy: with voters six points more likely to think a future Labour government would damage it than a Conservative one.
But Labour has allayed some fears. Compared with 1996, voters are substantially less likely to think a Labour government would drive up inflation, interest rates and force down house prices.
Today's poll has also allowed a large-scale analysis of party support by age and region. It shows that Britain's political north-south divide is making a comeback, with increased support for the Conservatives almost exclusively concentrated in southern England.
The research compares data from all ICM polls carried out during the 2005 general election with all ICM polls carried out since Mr Brown became Labour leader in late June. The larger sample sizes allow an accurate assessment of each party's core strengths and weaknesses. Labour support has held up well in northern England, the east and the Midlands. During the 2005 campaign Labour averaged 45% in the north, compared with 47% now. Support has also risen in London, where it averaged 41% in 2005 and 48% now. In the south and south-west of England, Labour support is also resilient, at 28% now compared with 27% in 2005.
But the party is struggling in Scotland and Wales, in the wake of the SNP's victory in this year's elections to Holyrood, dropping from 43% in 2005 to 36% now. That suggests Mr Brown may delay an election because he fears losing seats to the SNP.
Meanwhile the Conservative advance under Mr Cameron has been more limited than many have assumed. In northern England and Scotland, Conservative support has fallen over the last two years. In the 2005 election the party averaged 28% support in the north in ICM polls.
Since Mr Brown's arrival, it has averaged just 26%. In Scotland, support has dropped by one point. But this poor performance is partly offset by strong growth in southern England. In 2005, Tory support averaged 39% in the south. Now it has reached 48%. Support has also climbed in London.
A striking feature of the research is that these advances have come at the expense of the Lib Dems, with almost no shift from Labour to the Conservatives.
Lib Dem support has fallen by nine points in the south to 19% and is now lower than in the north, where it stands at 22% and appears to be more resilient.
That suggests that Sir Menzies Campbell will lose a string of southern seats at the next general election as they revert to the Conservatives. His party may hold its own in the north against Labour in terms of votes, but has fewer winnable seats there. Lib Dem support in London has also dropped. The research also analyses party support by age and social background. Again, it shows that the Conservative advance has been limited to traditional areas. The party leads Labour among pensioners, people in the AB socio-economic class and homeowners.
The analysis suggests the Tories are slipping further behind Labour among people aged 25-65.
· ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,016 adults aged 18+ by telephone between 22nd and 23rd August 2007.
Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,,2156941,00.html
The new north-south divide
This all-encompassing scale is the one on which political success between elections is usually judged - and the Guardian/ICM series, the longest-running in recent political history, has proved a reliable guide. But as motorists and mountain walkers know, big maps can hide much essential detail. Smaller scales can point out contrasts and variations that are otherwise missed. This is certainly the case with today's poll, and the longer-term analysis that accompanies it. By compiling the results of all ICM polls since Mr Brown became prime minister two months ago today, a bigger sample can be examined, containing the views of 5,039 people this summer. This allows a more accurate assessment of political opinion in different parts of the country, and among different types of voters. Reducing the scale from national to regional in this way exposes a very different picture of political opinion across Britain.
One striking feature is that Labour, led by a Scottish prime minister, is in good health everywhere in the country apart from Scotland and Wales. Compared with 2005, when ICM interviewed 13,214 voters during the general election campaign, Labour's average vote in Scotland and Wales has fallen by seven points, from 43% to 36%. Alex Salmond's new administration in Edinburgh appears to be proving popular. That in itself may be enough to deter Mr Brown from testing his luck in an early general election. But if he does he can hope to do well in England - or at least as well as Labour did in 2005. In London, for instance, Labour support is six points up; in the south-east and south-west it is one point up; and in the north, the engine-room of Labour's parliamentary majority, it has risen by two points.
For Mr Cameron, who ought to be doing much better than Michael Howard in 2005, these are disheartening figures. But the most remarkable finding is the one showing just how localised Mr Cameron's appeal is. In the south-east outside London and the south-west the Conservatives have advanced massively in the past two years, up from 39% to an average of 48%. If that swing was a national one, not a regional one, Mr Cameron would be on his way to office. His weakness is in the north, where Conservative support actually appears to have fallen, from 28% to 26%. The north-south divide in British politics is making a comeback.
His problem is not just that northern voters might prefer the Yorkshire tones of David Davis or William Hague: they also still like Sir Menzies Campbell. He, of all the party leaders, has the most to chew over. In the north Lib Dem support is firm: 22% now, against 23% in 2005. But in the south - where most Lib Dem MPs are elected - it has collapsed, down nine points at 19%. That means the Liberal Democrats are now stronger in the north than the south for the first time since their formation. The party has also dropped back seven points in London. Polling day could be brutal.
The picture is of a country split across the middle: a southern land that likes Mr Cameron's new style (but retains a fondness for Mr Brown too) and one to the north that cannot abide it. Only one of these lands will get the government it wants at the next general election.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/comment/0,,2156972,00.html