Why Gordon Brown’s poll lead is slipping

Latest polls show the Brown honeymoon coming to an end. The idea that he is new and different has taken several knocks in the last few weeks.

Our troops are still fighting in difficult conditions in Iraq. Hopes that Gordon Brown would bring them home early have been dashed, whilst he also seems unwilling to reinforce or protect them properly.

The credit crunch and continuing higher interest rates have reminded people that economic management has not been good in recent times. People are feeling the pinch from Brown’s higher taxes and money squeeze. Conservative plans for tax cuts got a great welcome, as people are fed up with paying more but not getting value for money.

Some hospital Maternity and A and E departments are still under threat of closure, depsite all the money being spent, reminding people just how much waste there is and how they are not getting what they want from all the tax paid.

Recent violent crime has reminded people that “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” was just a slogan.The Home Secretary has not looked as if she knows what to do to curb violence.

In summary, it looks like business as usual from Blair’s deputy. Tony may have been airbrushed out of the script by the spin doctors, but until there are some decisive changes in policy and direction people will not buy the idea that this is a new government with something good to offer.

It is unlikely Brown will go for an early general election against this background.

If I were advising Gordon Brown on going early I would say do the following:

1. Withdraw the troops as soon as possible from Iraq, notifying our US allies and leaving a few people to assist with further training of the Iraqi security services.
2. Announce an end to A&E and maternity unit closures, and the expensive reconfigurations that go with them.
3. Announce more community based policing with visible police presence in the worst areas for anti social behaviour, drug dealing and violent crime, cutting the paperwork and less important issues to create more police time
4. State that tax reduction and reform on Irish lines will be important to finding jobs for the 5.4 million out of work, and stimulating the economy in the slow growth parts of the UK.
4. Announce a Referendum on the Constitution on the same day as an early General Election.

Anything less invites disappointment at the polls.

http://www.johnredwoodsdiary.com/2007/08/28/why-gordon-browns-poll-lead-is-slipping/